Your Ads Don’t Have to Be Political to Feel the Heat of Election Season
TL;DR: A record $11.6 billion in political ad spending is projected for the 2026 election cycle, including $1.6 billion across major digital platforms like Facebook and Google. As campaigns and PACs ramp up spending ahead of Election Day, nonpolitical advertisers may face increased competition for ad inventory, particularly on Meta and in highly competitive political markets. That can contribute to higher advertising costs, reduced reach and more volatile performance. Not every advertiser will feel the same impact, but knowing what to watch can help you respond strategically instead of panicking when October performance suddenly gets weird.
Every once in a while (a long, long while), my political science degree becomes almost relevant to my career in digital marketing. This is one of those times :’)
The 2026 midterm elections are coming up on November 3, and if your organization is running digital ads this fall, there’s something important to keep in mind: your ads do not need to have anything to do with politics to potentially feel the effects of election season.
You could be advertising checking accounts, museum tickets, online education, event registrations or just about anything else. You’re still participating in the same broader advertising marketplace as political campaigns and PACs spending enormous amounts of money to reach voters. And this year, we really do mean enormous. Like, recordbreaking.
AdImpact projects political advertising spending will reach a record $11.6 billion during the 2026 election cycle, surpassing both the 2022 midterms and 2024 presidential election cycle. (Sorry, did you read that??? Surpassing the 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION!!!!) Digital spending across Facebook, Google, Snapchat and X alone is projected to reach $1.6 billion. That’s a whole lot of campaign contributions making their way back into your social media feed.
Why We’re Watching Meta So Closely
Election season can affect advertising across multiple channels, but if you’re running paid social campaigns, Meta is the platform we’d be paying particularly close attention to as Election Day approaches.
Facebook and Instagram offer political advertisers the combination of enormous reach, sophisticated audience targeting and a feed-based environment where campaigns can repeatedly reach potential voters. Meta even maintains a dedicated Ad Library and reporting system where anyone can view spending on ads about social issues, elections and politics by advertiser and location.
For nonpolitical advertisers, the important part is that everyone is competing within the same broader ecosystem for people’s attention and available ad inventory. Meta’s advertising system operates as an auction. When more advertisers want to reach similar people at similar times, competition can increase.
Thanks to the invention of PACs, political advertisers don't necessarily have the same definition of efficiency as your average business or nonprofit. If you’ve ever wondered why you’re still getting 3 emails and 5 texts a day from a candidate running for office somewhere you haven't lived or voted in for a decade, you understand the general energy we're talking about.
Political campaigns also have a deadline that cannot move. Election Day is Election Day. Campaigns and outside groups raise money specifically to reach voters before that date, and there isn't much value in saving an advertising budget for November 4. (Unless you’re in Georgia where there’s the potential of a runoff election! We don’t have time to get into this right now.)
As that spending accelerates, particularly in the final weeks before an election, nonpolitical Meta advertisers may find themselves competing in a much more crowded auction than they were earlier in the year.
What Could That Look Like in Your Meta Ads?
If election-season competition starts affecting your campaigns, it may not show up as one dramatic overnight change. You may start seeing higher CPMs, meaning you're paying more simply to get your ads in front of the same number of people. Higher CPMs can then contribute to higher CPCs and acquisition costs, even if the people who see your ads are responding at roughly the same rate as before.
You could also see reduced reach or less consistent delivery, particularly if you're working with a smaller budget and suddenly competing against advertisers willing to spend aggressively to reach the same audience. And perhaps most frustratingly, performance may simply become more volatile.
I Think I’ve Seen This Film Before…
We’re also not sharing this warning based on theory alone. Our team has managed paid social campaigns through previous election cycles, and we’ve seen firsthand how frustrating election-season performance can get.
During one particularly competitive election cycle, we were working with a client during a critical period for their business when every day of performance really mattered. As political spending ramped up, their Meta campaigns started getting less visibility while becoming more expensive.
Our team was doing all the things we would normally do when performance starts slipping. We were testing creative, refining copy, adjusting campaigns and keeping a very close eye on the numbers. But despite doing the right things within the account, performance remained unusually challenging until the election passed and the advertising environment began to settle down.
The client had absolutely nothing to do with politics, which made the situation even more frustrating. Without the broader context, it was easy to look at the campaigns and wonder what we were doing wrong. I think this experience may be directly responsible for giving me gray hair before age 30, BTW.
Looking back, one thing we could have done better was prepare everyone for the advertising environment we were entering. That's a big reason we're talking about it now. Sometimes a change in performance is a signal that your strategy needs attention. Other times, the marketplace around your ads has changed. Knowing the difference can help your team avoid unnecessary panic, resist making a dozen reactive campaign changes and make smarter decisions about where your ad spend goes.
Where You Advertise Matters, Too
Election season’s impact on social ads won't necessarily be distributed evenly across the country. Political spending tends to concentrate in places with competitive races. In 2026, that could mean states and media markets with closely watched Senate, House, gubernatorial or other high-profile races experience substantially more political advertising activity than other areas.
AdImpact’s updated 2026 projections already show how concentrated that spending can become. Its estimates increased significantly in states like Ohio, Texas and Maine because of statewide races attracting additional political spending.
For advertisers, geography is an essential part of the conversation. If your Meta campaigns are heavily concentrated in a market receiving huge amounts of political ad spend, we’d watch your CPMs, reach and acquisition costs particularly closely as November approaches.
An advertiser targeting a less politically competitive market may have a completely different experience.
Does Election Season Always Hurt Ad Performance?
No, and this is where some nuance is important. Because as we know, in digital marketing, the answer is always “it depends.”
Ask a room full of PPC and paid social experts how election season impacts ad performance, and you probably won't get one universal answer. Some advertisers report significant changes during major election cycles. Others see relatively little disruption. Your experience can depend on your audience, geography, industry, campaign objective, placements, budget and how much political advertising overlaps with the people you're trying to reach.
There’s also no magic budget threshold where election season suddenly starts or stops mattering. So we're not recommending that everyone turn off their Meta ads until November 4. We are recommending that advertisers understand the environment they're entering, know their baseline performance and be prepared to adjust if the data gives them a reason to.
What Should Advertisers Do Ahead of the Midterms?
Start by establishing what normal performance looks like. Look at your average CPM, CPC, reach, conversion rate and cost per acquisition before political spending reaches its final pre-election push. Having that baseline will make it much easier to recognize unusual changes throughout the month.
From there, pay attention to geography. If you're advertising in markets with particularly competitive elections, keep a closer eye on costs and delivery as Election Day approaches.
Most importantly, try to avoid automatically assuming that weaker performance means your creative suddenly stopped working or your entire strategy needs an overhaul. If CPMs increase substantially while other indicators remain relatively stable, increased competition may be part of the story.
For some advertisers, temporarily reducing Meta ad spend during particularly expensive periods may make sense. That budget could potentially be shifted to another channel, moved to a less competitive time period or saved for when conditions normalize. For others, staying the course will be the right call.
Your actual performance data should make that decision for you, not a blanket election-season rule.
Everyone Remain Calm and Watch Your CPMs
Election season creates an unusual advertising environment. Billions of dollars are being spent on a very real deadline, and some of that money is competing for the same attention your organization is trying to earn. That doesn't mean your campaigns are doomed until November 3.
It does mean that if performance starts behaving strangely this fall, there may be more happening than meets the eye.
At Avenue, we've been factoring election season into our clients' fall digital advertising strategies, with particular attention on Meta and organizations advertising in highly competitive political markets. We'll be watching costs, reach and conversions closely and making adjustments where the data tells us they're needed. Sometimes the smartest optimization isn't another creative refresh, but recognizing when the auction itself has changed.
Want a Second Set of Eyes on Your Ad Strategy?
If you're wondering how election season could affect your digital advertising campaigns, or your results have already started looking a little unusual, reach out to Avenue. We can help you understand what's happening, where your budget is working hardest and whether adjusting your strategy makes sense.
And if you’re not sure where to start? Submit our complimentary digital marketing audit form, and we'll help identify opportunities to make your digital marketing work harder for your organization.